Events won’t wait for clarity. 

The choices we make today will have a lasting impact on Israel’s future.

As Israel and the global Jewish community grapple with the aftermath of the harrowing October 7th events, we must answer the question: What is the future of Israel in the next 12-18 months, and what will be the impact on recovery needs across the population? To be able to plan and think ahead in this uncertain context, we have embarked with PollyLabs on a process of future scenarios. Scenarios are the most robust tools that organizations and communities can use in situations like ours.

PollyLabs is an Israeli/American think tank and a venture studio that combines the best practices of the corporate world with a deep understanding of the impact space. Over the past weeks, PollyLabs has convened a group of experts and leaders to craft a set of scenarios that outline the different futures that we could be confronting in 12-18 months.

Our organizations have teamed up to use the work that PollyLabs has been developing as a tool for the philanthropic community to think strategically about the future of its work in Israel. The process, to be jointly facilitated by Polly Labs and JFN, will analyze the implications of each scenario for different areas, including mental health and trauma, economy and employment, education, and shared society. Through philanthropic working groups, we want to identify actions that funders and nonprofits can take today to help each sector come out of the crisis stronger and better.

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Sector Deep Dives

Summary

Two major uncertainties will determine the near-term future and Israel’s subsequent recovery needs: the degree of conflict escalation and the extent to which Israel's internal stability will be maintained. Based on these uncertainties, we envisioned four plausible scenarios to expand our thinking, unearth hidden risks, possibilities, and develop a set of  ‘no-regret moves’ — strategies with merit regardless of the scenario.

This resource aids organizations in both designing a robust recovery approach, adaptable to various scenarios, as well as identifying choices that enhance the likelihood of realizing the specific future we collectively aspire to see.

Key takeaways

1. Real recovery demands restructuring, not a return to the status quo
   Use your voice and actions to set a new vision and drive systemic changes across various dimensions (e.g., geopolitical outlook, political structure, social contract)
2. Social cohesion among the four tribes must be a top priority for everyone
   Invest in fostering cohesion among different populations within Israel and with Global Jewry; encourage and undertake bold actions that could lead to a new social contract aligned with an ethos of unity
3. Under old paradigms, resources will not suffice for all needs
   Rethink and clarify your role within the broader ecosystem; partner extensively and creatively across sectors, disciplines and borders to creatively expand and effectively utilize resources
4. We will need to navigate uncertainty for the foreseeable future
   Develop internal capabilities, processes, and protocols to react swiftly and efficiently to evolving realities (e.g., enhance monitoring capabilities and streamline decision-making mechanisms

What are Scenarios and how do we use them?

Scenarios are not predictions. They are narratives about the future, meant to illustrate a range of plausible realities. They are hypotheses meant to stretch our thinking, challenge our preconceptions, and shed light on new opportunities and hidden risks. Scenarios begin with a guiding focal question and then evolve into considering what elements are most uncertain about the future versus what we know to be likely.

• Scenario thinking isn’t about making predictions; rather, it's meant for imagining possibilities to help us:
• Identify scenario-specific impacts, risks, and responses 
• Uncover 'universal truths' that are likely to occur in most or all scenarios and ‘no-regrets moves’ to consider in our response  
• Pressure-test recovery strategies against multiple potential future states
• Collaborate and identify our roles in shaping the future we want to see

Who is behind this initiative?

This analysis has been conducted and compiled by a diverse team of subject experts from various fields including geopolitical conflict, philanthropy, social impact investing, economics and financial strategy, civil society activism, non-profit leadership, former government officials, and scenario experts. We made our best effort to transcend political divides, sectors, and disciplines - though we recognize the shortcomings of a rushed exercise.

Initiating this exercise is PollyLabs, a global think-and-do tank and a venture builder fostering innovative solutions via blended capital models. PollyLabs’ research is designed to close critical knowledge gaps, serving as a catalyst, unlocking resources and investments, and ensuring that promising ventures and founders receive the support and capital they need.

This view of the future was developed in partnership with an incredible group of thinkers over the course of multiple intensive sessions and then pressure-tested and refined through the help of subject matter experts.  We want to express our heartfelt gratitude to the individuals who joined us for hours of discussions, the experts who lent their time and wisdom to challenge and refine our thinking, and the dozens of people who helped translate, edit, and package this result. For a complete list of contributors, please refer to the people section.

We would love to hear from you

We encourage you to read and engage with our work, utilize this resource as you find it suitable, and recognize its limitations. We are actively seeking partners to develop and disseminate the results, aiming to make this resource as beneficial as possible. Please reach out at Beth Benjamin should you have any questions, comments, or if you wish to connect.